WELCOME TO THE POSTERIOR ✳
Strong priors.
Weak evidence.
Meet Dr. Bayes. He questions everything—except his Saab, the bartender's credit policy, and the occasional third whiskey.
FIG 01. THE SUBJECT, IN HIS NATURAL STATE.NOT INCLUDED
FRESH FROM THE FORECAST / NO. 007
The Perfect
Forecast.
A flawless forecast. An executive with a perfect track record. One rather inconvenient question.
Apparently, predicting yesterday is a growth industry.
Read episode 007 PAST PERFORMANCE MAY HAVE BEEN RETROACTIVELY IMPROVED.
THE LATEST ISSUE ↗Pull up a stool.
Small observations about big certainties. Best enjoyed without reading the footnotes first.
NO. 006The First Date
Dr. Bayes meets a hypothesis he'd like to replicate.
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NO. 005The Mechanic
He'll update every belief except this one.
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NO. 004A Quick Learner
The bartender learns Bayes—and checks the tab.
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NO. 003The Disappearing Haystack
Thousands of premium customers. One rather large omission.
Read episodeMeet the regulars.
01Dr. Bayes
A strategist with sharp questions, questionable social skills and a regrettable attachment to a 1991 Saab.
“Compared to what?”
02The Bartender
He has never studied Bayesian statistics. He understands people—and Dr. Bayes's unpaid tabs—perfectly.
“I've updated your tab.”PROFESSOR FISHER IS EXPECTED SOON. HE'LL WANT A LARGER SAMPLE FIRST.
Welcome to
The Posterior.
Where opinions come to be updated. A neighborhood bar for statisticians, executives, consultants, and other unreliable narrators.
Pull up a stool“I reserve the right to be less wrong tomorrow.”— Dr. Bayes
There's more
evidence coming.
New comics, occasional statistical wisdom and the continued deterioration of one very old Saab.
Explore the archive NEWSLETTER COMING SOON. NO SIGNUP UNTIL WE CAN ACTUALLY SEND IT.