EPISODE 005 · THE GARAGE
The Mechanic
A strong prior. A very tired Saab.. Dr. Bayes faces an inconvenient sample of breakdowns—and a mechanic who won't let him ignore it.
THE COMICTap any panel to open it at full size
A NOTE FOR CURIOUS MINDS
Behind the joke.
Dr. Bayes knows better than to dismiss repeated evidence merely because it threatens a cherished belief. But the Saab is his exception. The joke is about motivated reasoning: applying a stricter standard of proof to evidence we dislike than to evidence that flatters our existing opinions.
SPEECH BUBBLES, IN WORDS
The transcript.
For readers who prefer dialogue without zooming in.
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Mechanic: Your Saab has broken down four times this month. You need a new car.
Dr. Bayes: That's a very small sample.
Mechanic: It's the fourth month in a row!
Dr. Bayes: I have a strong prior.