The Conversion Miracle
A better rate from fewer people. A marketer celebrates a 60% jump in website conversion. Dr. Bayes asks for the denominator and finds that traffic and leads both fell.
Behind the joke.
A rate can rise because its denominator shrank. Here traffic fell from 100,000 to 50,000 visits while conversion rose from 5% to 8%, so leads fell from 5,000 to 4,000. The visitors who vanished were mostly non-branded searchers, who convert less often than people already looking for the brand, so the remaining audience looks better without anyone becoming easier to convert. Judge a rate alongside the volumes behind it.
The transcript.
For readers who prefer dialogue without zooming in.
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Marketer: Great news. Website conversion is up sixty percent!
Dr. Bayes: Extraordinary.
Dr. Bayes: Show me the denominator.
Marketer: Traffic is down fifty percent. Mostly non-branded search.
Dr. Bayes: And leads?
Marketer: Down twenty percent.
Dr. Bayes: Extraordinary. Your customers didn't become easier to convert. Your prospects disappeared.