The Gambler
Seven losses, one unshakable prediction. A gambler on a seven-bet losing streak is sure he's due for a win. Dr. Bayes asks what makes him so certain.
Behind the joke.
This is the gambler's fallacy. When each bet is independent, as with a roulette spin, past results do not change the odds of the next one: the wheel has no memory of the last seven outcomes. Losing streaks do not have to even out, and the house edge applies to every single bet. What the casino relies on is the player's memory, which turns past losses into a reason to keep playing.
The transcript.
For readers who prefer dialogue without zooming in.
Read the dialogue ↘
Gambler: I've lost seven bets in a row. The next one has to win.
Dr. Bayes: Extraordinary.
Dr. Bayes: What makes you so certain?
Gambler: I'm due.
Gambler: The odds have to even out.
Dr. Bayes: The odds have no memory. The casino is counting on yours.