The False Prophets
The bigger the stage, the bolder the claim. A young executive falls for a charismatic marketing guru's promises of explosive growth. Dr. Bayes quietly questions the evidence.
Behind the joke.
One company's growth story, told confidently from a stage, is an anecdote rather than evidence. Tripling top-of-funnel spend will usually lift top-of-funnel numbers; the real question is whether the extra spend paid back in profitable customers, compared with what would have happened anyway. Applause measures how persuasive the speaker was, not whether the strategy works.
The transcript.
For readers who prefer dialogue without zooming in.
Read the dialogue ↘
Young Executive: This guy is brilliant.
Dr. Bayes: Extraordinary.
Guru: Flood the zone. Buy attention first. Performance will follow.
Young Executive: This is exactly what we need.
Dr. Bayes: And the evidence?
Young Executive: He tripled top-of-funnel spend and everything lifted.
Dr. Bayes: Did he mention payback, or just applause?
Young Executive: No, but he made it sound obvious.
Dr. Bayes: False prophets usually do.