The Disappearing Haystack
The problem with the missing denominator. A conference speaker's extraordinary customer-acquisition claim deserves one ordinary question.
Behind the joke.
A big count of high-value customers tells us something about volume, but not how efficiently they were identified. Without the total customers acquired, their costs, and their actual value, we cannot judge the claimed targeting performance. Dr. Bayes isn't saying the premium customers don't exist—he's asking for the missing denominator.
The transcript.
For readers who prefer dialogue without zooming in.
Read the dialogue ↘
Executive: I met an incredible guy at a conference. He finds thousands of premium customers. Every single day!
Dr. Bayes: Extraordinary.
Dr. Bayes: How many ordinary customers does he acquire?
Executive: I have no idea. He only showed us the premium ones.
Dr. Bayes: Ah. He found the needle and hid the haystack.