THE WORLD OF DR. BAYESA WORK IN PROBABILITY · EST. 2026
Dr. BayesStart reading

WELCOME TO THE POSTERIOR ✳

Strong priors.
Weak evidence.

Meet Dr. Bayes. He questions everything—except his Saab, the bartender's credit policy, and the occasional third whiskey.

Read the latest comic Meet the man
AN ILLUSTRATED FIELD GUIDE TO BEING LESS WRONG.
Dr. Bayes, a bespectacled, disheveled middle-aged intellectual, deep in thoughtFIG 01. THE SUBJECT, IN HIS NATURAL STATE.
CERTAINTY
NOT INCLUDED
THE HOUSE RULES✳Extraordinary claims require evidence.✳Whiskey improves confidence. Not accuracy.

FRESH FROM THE BOARDROOM / NO. 025

The Long
Run.

Six customers said $2,900. A hundred said $4,050. The campaign may not have changed at all.

Dr. Bayes on the difference between an early result and an estimate.

Read episode 025 THE FIRST SIX CUSTOMERS ARE NOT A FORECAST.
Full episode 025 comic: The Long RunTHE LATEST ISSUE ↗
THE BACK ISSUES

Pull up a stool.

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Small observations about big certainties. Best enjoyed without reading the footnotes first.

Opening panel of Episode 024, “The Whole Story”NO. 024
Marketing & measurement

The Whole Story

Overall conversion is up 68%. Every segment went down.

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Opening panel of Episode 023, “The Survivors”NO. 023
Behavior & bias

The Survivors

They studied their best customers and learned what their best customers have in common.

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Opening panel of Episode 022, “The Conversion Miracle”NO. 022
Marketing & measurement

The Conversion Miracle

Conversion is up sixty percent. Everything else is down.

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Opening panel of Episode 021, “The Miracle Sign”NO. 021
Behavior & bias

The Miracle Sign

Tips doubled after the sign went up. So did the bartender's statistics.

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PEOPLE WITH UNRELIABLE NARRATIVES

Meet the regulars.

SOME OF THEM EVEN LEARN.
Dr. Bayes portrait01
THE PROFESSIONAL SKEPTIC

Dr. Bayes

A strategist with sharp questions, questionable social skills and a regrettable attachment to a 1991 Saab.

“Compared to what?”
The bartender from the approved A Quick Learner comic02
THE UNOFFICIAL STUDENT

The Bartender

He has never studied Bayesian statistics. He understands people—and Dr. Bayes's unpaid tabs—perfectly.

“I've updated your tab.”
Elena Reyes, a confident executive with shoulder-length dark wavy hair and elegant earrings, from the approved comic The Whale03
THE DECISIVE EXECUTIVE

Elena Reyes

Commercially minded, she values evidence and knows when she's learned enough to act. Unlike Dr. Bayes, she rarely suffers from analysis paralysis.

“I'd rather change my mind than defend a bad decision.”

PROFESSOR FISHER HAS ARRIVED. HE'S STILL WAITING FOR A LARGER SAMPLE.

Dr. Bayes and the bartender at The Posterior in the first comic
THE SETTING

Welcome to
The Posterior.

Where opinions come to be updated. A neighborhood bar for statisticians, executives, consultants, and other unreliable narrators.

01 All opinions welcome.
02 Extraordinary claims require evidence.
03 Certainty costs extra.
Pull up a stool
FROM THE DESK OF DR. BAYES · CARD 001
“I reserve the right to be less wrong tomorrow.”
— Dr. Bayes
AN ONGOING EXPERIMENT

There's more
evidence coming.

New comics, occasional statistical wisdom and the continued deterioration of one very old Saab.

Explore the archive NEWSLETTER COMING SOON. NO SIGNUP UNTIL WE CAN ACTUALLY SEND IT.