WELCOME TO THE POSTERIOR ✳
Strong priors.
Weak evidence.
Meet Dr. Bayes. He questions everything—except his Saab, the bartender's credit policy, and the occasional third whiskey.
FIG 01. THE SUBJECT, IN HIS NATURAL STATE.NOT INCLUDED
FRESH FROM THE BOARDROOM / NO. 020
The Model That
Never Learned.
Seasonality, saturation, macro conditions and channel interactions. The agency modeled everything except whether the ads got better.
Elena Reyes spots the missing assumption before the budget does.
Read episode 020 STABILITY IS NOT THE SAME AS ACCURACY.
THE LATEST ISSUE ↗Pull up a stool.
Small observations about big certainties. Best enjoyed without reading the footnotes first.
NO. 019The Uncomfortable Forecast
Two million dollars expected. She brought the rest of the distribution too.
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NO. 018The Second Curve
She looked closer and found two customer populations hiding in one chart.
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NO. 017The Whale
Ten thousand customers looks diversified. The revenue says otherwise.
Read episode
NO. 016The Bell Curve
The model fit beautifully once the inconvenient customers were gone.
Read episodeMeet the regulars.
01Dr. Bayes
A strategist with sharp questions, questionable social skills and a regrettable attachment to a 1991 Saab.
“Compared to what?”
02The Bartender
He has never studied Bayesian statistics. He understands people—and Dr. Bayes's unpaid tabs—perfectly.
“I've updated your tab.”
03Elena Reyes
Commercially minded, she values evidence and knows when she's learned enough to act. Unlike Dr. Bayes, she rarely suffers from analysis paralysis.
“I'd rather change my mind than defend a bad decision.”PROFESSOR FISHER HAS ARRIVED. HE'S STILL WAITING FOR A LARGER SAMPLE.
Welcome to
The Posterior.
Where opinions come to be updated. A neighborhood bar for statisticians, executives, consultants, and other unreliable narrators.
Pull up a stool“I reserve the right to be less wrong tomorrow.”— Dr. Bayes
There's more
evidence coming.
New comics, occasional statistical wisdom and the continued deterioration of one very old Saab.
Explore the archive NEWSLETTER COMING SOON. NO SIGNUP UNTIL WE CAN ACTUALLY SEND IT.